Grace, Finch atop leaderboard at suspended Joburg Open

Golf Betting Lines

01/14/2012 - Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Branden Grace and Richard Finch were atop the leaderboard Saturday when the third round of the Joburg Open was suspended due to dangerous weather.

Each day of this tournament has been marred with inclement weather, though Saturday proved to be the best of the three days at Royal Johannesburg and Kensington Golf Club. The event is now almost on track, with the final group having only four holes to play in the third round, which will resume at 12:30 a.m. (et) on Sunday.

After the first two rounds alternated over the East and West Courses, the third and final rounds are played solely on the more difficult par-72 East Course.

Grace and Finch both sit at 15-under, with Grace having three holes and Finch having four to finish on Sunday before the final round.

George Coetzee is third at 14-under with four holes to play, while Andrew Parr (64) and Dawie Van Der Walt (67) share the clubhouse lead at 12-under 203. Parr and Van Der Walt are tied with Jbe Kruger in fourth; Kruger has three holes to finish in his third round.

After the second round was completed and the cut was made at four-under 141, it was guaranteed that a new champion would be crowned on Sunday. Charl Schwartzel, the two-time defending champion, missed by one stroke and will not become the sixth European Tour player to win three straight titles at the same event.

Grace, meanwhile, has a good chance at his first European Tour title, while Finch is gunning for his third.

Finch entered the day with 12 holes to play in his second round, and he added a hole-in-one on the East Course's par-three 12th. He finished two rounds at 11-under and rode the momentum into the third round.

Finch began his third round with a 20-foot birdie putt at the first, but stumbled to a bogey at the fourth. After going birdie-bogey from the sixth, Finch chipped in for an eagle at the par-five eighth to move to 13-under.

He followed the eagle with a birdie at the ninth, and a 15-foot birdie putt at the 13th made sure he led when play was called.

Grace finished his second round on Friday and was flawless on Saturday, including a late surge that was halted by the weather. His front nine included birdies at two of the par-fives, making the turn at 12-under, and he had three consecutive birdies from the 13th to gain a share of the lead.

NOTES: A cash prize is awarded for a hole-in-one in the final round, so Finch's ace will go unrewarded...Both of Finch's victories came in 2008...There are still 27 players left to finish the third round.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.